1. Cost
Favorable factors: The price of imported needle coke from China has been raised by US$100/ton, and the increased price will be implemented in July, which may drive the price of high-quality needle coke in China to follow up, and the production cost of ultra-high power graphite electrodes is still high Up.
Negative factors: The low-sulfur petroleum coke market price has risen too fast in the early period, and the low-sulfur petroleum coke market has been operating weakly recently, and the price has gradually returned to rationality. The cost of low-sulfur calcined coke has weakened, coupled with poor shipments from low-sulfur calcined coke refineries, and prices have also declined, leading to obvious wait-and-see sentiment in the graphite electrode market.
On the whole: Although the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke has fallen, it still has a 68.12% increase over the same period last year; the price of domestic needle coke as raw material for graphite electrodes is high and the price of imported needle coke has risen. At present, domestic graphite electrodes The price of needle coke is about 9000-10000 yuan/ton; the price of imported needle coke is about 1600-1800 US dollars/ton. The price of coal pitch fluctuates at a high level and within a narrow range. The modified pitch for graphite products is 5650 yuan/ton. , The overall cost of the graphite electrode market is still high.
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2. On the supply side
In the near future, there is still a good support for the supply of graphite electrodes in the market. The specific analysis is as follows:
1. The overall inventory of the graphite electrode market remains at a low and reasonable level. Most graphite electrode companies indicate that they have no excess inventory accumulation, and the graphite electrode market as a whole is basically free of inventory and pressure.
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2. It is understood that some graphite electrode companies currently indicate that some graphite electrode specifications are out of stock (mainly ultra-high power 450mm). It can be seen that the supply of ultra-high power medium and small specifications still maintains a weak tight state.
3. According to feedback from some mainstream graphite electrode companies, the supply of high-quality needle coke resources in China was tight in June, and due to the maintenance of a needle coke company in the United Kingdom from February to May, the imported needle coke arrived in Hong Kong in July and August, leading to China’s import The supply of needle coke is relatively short. Affected by this, some mainstream graphite electrode companies have blocked the production of ultra-high-power and large-size graphite electrodes. At present, the supply of ultra-high-size graphite electrodes in the market is in a tightly balanced state.
4. Affected by the increase in the price of imported needle coke from China, some graphite electrode companies are reluctant to sell, and the supply side of the graphite electrode market is generally weak and tight.
3. Downstream demand
Favorable factors
1. Recently, the operation of the downstream electric furnace steel plants of graphite electrodes has been relatively stable, and the average operating rate of electric furnace steel plants has always been maintained at about 70%, and the graphite electrode just needs to be stable.
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2. The graphite electrode export market has been supported recently. According to customs statistics, China’s graphite electrode export volume was 34,600 tons in May 2021, an increase of 5.36% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 30.53%; China’s total graphite electrode exports from January to May 2021 It was 178,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.07%. And it is understood that some graphite electrode companies also said that their exports are good and the export market is relatively stable.
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3. Recently, the number of furnaces in the silicon metal market has gradually increased. As of June 17, the number of silicon metal furnaces has increased by 10 compared with the end of May. The number of furnaces in Baichuan’s statistics is 652 and the number of furnaces is 246. The demand for ordinary power graphite electrodes has shown a steady, medium and small increase.
Negative factors
1. Regarding electric furnace steel, due to the recent slow season in the industry, the sales of finished products have been hindered, and the price of finished products has continued to be weak recently, and the price of finished products has fallen more than the price of raw scrap steel. The profit of electric furnace steel plants has been compressed, and the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke has recently fallen. , Steel mills have a wait-and-see sentiment on the price of graphite electrodes, and there is a certain price reduction behavior on graphite electrode purchases.
2. The freight price of graphite electrode export ships is still high, which hinders the export of graphite electrodes to a certain extent.
Market outlook: Although there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the graphite electrode market recently, the overall production cost of the graphite electrode market is still high, and the supply of superimposed graphite electrodes is still weak and tight, which is good for the strong quotes of mainstream graphite electrode companies. It is expected that the overall stable price of the graphite electrode market will operate as the Lord. In addition, the upward price of imported needle coke supports the cost of graphite electrodes. Under the influence of mainstream graphite electrode companies’ reluctance to sell, they are still bullish on ultra-high-power large-size graphite electrodes.